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BIMCO:2020散裝、油輪供給過剩

  • 工商時報 張佩芬
FILE – A speedboat of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard moves around a British-flagged oil tanker Stena Impero, which was seized on Friday by the Guard, in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, Sunday, July 21, 2019. The U.S. airstrike that killed a prominent Iranian general in Baghdad raises tensions even higher between Tehran and Washington after months of trading attacks and threats across the wider Middle East. (Hasan Shirvani/Mizan News Agency via AP, File)
FILE – A speedboat of the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard moves around a British-flagged oil tanker Stena Impero, which was seized on Friday by the Guard, in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, Sunday, July 21, 2019. The U.S. airstrike that killed a prominent Iranian general in Baghdad raises tensions even higher between Tehran and Washington after months of trading attacks and threats across the wider Middle East. (Hasan Shirvani/Mizan News Agency via AP, File)

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波羅的海國際航運公會(BIMCO)指出,2020年散裝與油輪都存在供給過剩問題,不過裕民等多家公司高階指出,航運是動態調整的行業,減速、汰舊都可改善供需,尤其今年因開始限用低硫油,船隻進場脫硫器與舊船提早汰換,都會壓低供給量。

BIMCO指出,2019年海岬型船高速增長4.1%將持續到2020年,航運需求和船舶供給之間的差距將繼續擴大,將對全年運費率造成巨大壓力。此外,由於地緣政治的發展,讓2019年超大型油輪(VLCC)運價創新高,但因2019年船隊增長率為6.3%,為八年來的最高水平,在短期的地緣政治因素消退後,市恐面臨供過於求的挑戰。

航商則認為,供給增加當然對市場運價形成一定壓力和挑戰,但限硫令造成船隻進塢加裝脫硫器,且因油價偏高採取減速航行措施,以及老舊船舶被迫提前拆解,都會減緩供給壓力。

需求方面,中美貿易首階段協議簽署,增加美國農產品出口運量,有助改善全球經濟溫和成長,帶動需求增加;另大陸持續基礎建設投資,穩定鐵礦石進口需求,加上巴西淡水河谷恢復產能,長水路運輸有利提升運價。

目前新船訂單占全部散裝船比例約10%,仍屬低點,2008年高點時曾超過60%,目前短期運價持續波動,於供需動態調整平衡後,運價會調整反彈。油輪部分在地緣政治因素減緩後,應會修正下調,不過美伊情勢恐拉長目前的高運價行情。

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